Ladies and gentlemen,
First, NYC media is my business and I want to remind you that on Oct 2 I predicted the disastrous GOP polling on the shut-down would dramatically reverse in a week and start to actually favor you and would hit Obama negatively. Unlike every other media outlet, this little blog by this long-time NYC media specialist called it right, and more importantly, for the correct reason: People got one whiff of ObamaCare in the mail, which shocked and frightened them, and they hated it. So I was right. I continue to be right. I am almost always right in these things. I will be right again so please pay attention.
In the event you have 10 seconds to read this, I will cut to the chase: whoever is perceived in the American collective opinion as having saved America from scary Obamacare will prove to be the hero in every poll in 4-6 weeks from today. It will be that fast and that dramatic. I absolutely, positively guarantee it and there is nothing the mainstream media can do to change that. Impossible? No, that is certain. Read on:
Some of you know this blog and associated group. A few of you know this group very well indeed. This letter is a follow up to the previous letter advising from a media perspective to stay the course on the shut-down. We know NYC media. I know NYC media almost too well from an inside professional viewpoint. Do not let that same media rattle you into reckless surrender: the shut-down is a political GOP winner.
For the past few days you have heard the media say the shut-down is a loser for you and to substantiate that opinion they point to the NBC/WSJ poll - and only the NBC/WSJ poll. The degree to which they have hung their political fortunes on that one poll which was a glitch even in terms of that organizations own tracking is astonishing. The fact that it is the only poll the media cites tells you the most important fact in the political/media shut-down situation you need to know: the other polls are different. Indeed, the other polls continue to move in your favor.
The fact is that poll is such an absurd statistical anomaly that like all statistical anomalies it should be thrown out of the statistical average. Instead, the democrats and media cite it endlessly as the representative illustration. Reducing it down to its most simple common vernacular, that's called "a lie". My advice: simply cite others, listed below, when you speak.
Please understand this analysis. It isn't difficult to grasp:
First and foremost, remember the media situation itself. They favor Obama and Democrats by 10-1, numerically, and almost 100% when you consider which outlets have the most influence. Therefore, any poll number you see in the media: A. is usually skewed to the democrats in terms of how the poll was structured. For example, the NBC/WSJ poll sampling had approximately 35% more democrats. How can they do that? Easy: they know none of their pals in the other outlets will call them out on such a thing, and they don't. B. The polls will continue to shift dramatically in the GOP favor compared to all other situations because Obamacare is it's own bad-news mainstream media: it arrives in the mail and shocks and angers and terrifies people. C. As always, today's poll is yesterday's opinion, because it takes a few days to properly organize the material if the poll is reliable.
Let's look at the bigger picture using Real Clear Politics political averages, and we see not just good things, but a few astonishing things you likely won't read cited elsewhere:
First the so called bad news. The dems poll more favorably today.But there is nothing bad about this poll.
Why else is that poll not bad? Because opinion polling of congress is entirely disastrous. In point of actual fact, it's so bad, that being close to the margin of error as you are to democrats puts you in a statistical tie when you factor in this percentage:
What is happening is that people are understanding the media attack against the GOP congress as being that of all of congress. They don't see the difference between the parties. The media attacks on you are washing over the democrats and having the same effect on them. The media is saying it isn't, but the numbers clearly prove it is.
So how do you find some perspective that breaks the tie, that gives you a clue? Easy and you know what it is: you look to the President's poll numbers. If the standard-bearer is up, he breaks the tie in favor of his party. If he's down, his party suffers by association - he's the guy everyone knows.
You have probably seen this around on twitter:
Obama is in the worst situation any politician can be in: he's on a downward slide. That means the numbers do not reflect any hope of a glitch or hiccup. Despite all the fawning in the world, many democrats now see Obama as a bad president, and it is happening at lightning speed, and not coincidentally, his slide coincides with people getting bad news about Obamacare, just as this blog predicted would be the case and got it right almost to the day.
Here is the general average.
This particular poll, above, is more of a personality contest for the general public, because they want to believe their president is a nice guy, no matter who he is. Note however, that his approval rating is worse than the congressional Republicans in terms of the actual spread. That's a hug net gain for the GOP.
Now get specific, and see what happens:
This is where Obama's actual job performance numbers are. Almost three times the spread between the GOP and the democrats. That's a huge net loss for the democrats.
Now everyone wants their president to succeed. So when he rolls out his most cherished, personal plan - the hallmark of what he wants to be remembered by - this number is positively horrendous:
This will only get worse. Besides people hating ObamaCare when they get the info in the mail, there is something else shocking in this poll: CNN, viewers - and those whom CNN has targeted for their poll -the network of Obama's most ardent supporters, hates Obamacare worse than anyone else. What does this tell us? It tells us that Obama did something he cannot afford to do but did anyway: he profoundly disappointed his base. What this also tells us is that Obama now has no reserves from which to draw politically. There is no slap or play available in the numbers. That negative 10.3 is as hard as a rock. And it will quickly get worse.
If you, the GOP congress, cave on the shut-down now, you will be seen by America as the people who ruined their lives because America is turning to you to save them. if you cave in the press will mock you and 2014 will be a disaster and maybe 2016 with it.
Stay the course, hang tight on the shut-down and if the US defaults, it will be Obama's default, because the people do not want Obamacare. Also, if the US defaults, you must decide something: do you impeach president Obama? This blog has advocated some admittedly controversial things, but never advocated his impeachment. If the US defaults because Obama will not let go of a horrible law nobody wants - indeed, he now wants to impose on them against their will, justifying that law based on a re-election based on a lie - then you must impeach him. There is no choice. At that point, America will understand it as long as you make it clear that it happened because Obama was being a petty tyrant and in so doing caused the US to default. I'm right about that, too.
The media is saying everything they can to convince you that they are convincing America, but they aren't convincing anyone. Obamacare info in the mail is the horror that overshadows all media spin.
No matter how you slice it, you must stay with the shut-down. In every possible regard, it is a huge PR and political winner for the GOP.